Britain in Lockdown – Day 31

Would you Adam and Eve it – the Swedes may have been right all along. A more relaxed lockdown may just have allowed their herd immunity to develop which means they have avoided the consequences to their economy and mental health of a full and strict lockdown.

Britain on the other hand could be facing a second wave that some are predicting will be worse than the first. By isolating ourselves we’ve yet to develop our immunity and will have to do so when lockdown ends in stages, but then we’ll see cases shoot up again. A second peak now seems a certainty.

It was known and planned that lockdown would isolate the majority of the population and not all of it, allowing some herd immunity to develop while the number of cases were kept low enough not to overwhelm the NHS, but it seems we’ve been too good at it, too compliant. Instead of the predicted 75% of the population in isolation 90% of us have remained in our homes and kept far enough away from each other.

The net result is that by being so compliant with the instructions drummed into us day after day (Stay At Home, Protect The NHS, Save Lives,) no herd immunity has developed or not enough to be significant yet, making the second wave very likely. It seems those near empty Nightingale hospitals may get filled yet and we won’t be allowed to resume normal life for a long while, if ever.

There are some suggestions that social distancing may have to be kept in place for a year. It’s probably just as well that we don’t know what the future holds for us for the rest of 2020 and into 2021. It’s a blessing that we don’t have to worry about certainties because if the predictions are correct then this past month has only been the overture and the main performance is yet to come.